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Is the frozen Arctic giving its carbon back?

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Permafrost is carbon storage that thaws

The risk is not one sudden “methane bomb.” It is a frozen carbon bank becoming biologically active as the ground warms, deepens, slumps, and turns wet enough for microbes to make methane.

~1,500 Gt Cstored in northern permafrost soils — roughly twice today’s atmospheric carbon.
4× warmingthe Arctic is warming several times faster than the global average.
abrupt thawthermokarst lakes and collapsing ice-rich ground can release methane faster than gradual thaw.

Methane in the air since 1983

— — Hover any bar to see its month and methane level.

Global mean CH₄ — each bar is one month (NOAA GML). Cooler blues = lower mixing ratio vs recent span; warmer reds = higher.

Arctic flask stations vs reference (Mace Head)

Arctic stations consistently show more methane than the mid-latitude reference — local sources, wetlands, or transport from lower latitudes.

Global methane trend

Annual global mean from NOAA — growth has re-accelerated since the mid-2000s.

    Ground temp anomaly
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    Arctic Report Card
    Frozen ground is this much warmer than the 1981–2010 average — and sets new records most years.
    Active layer thickness
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    vs 1991–2020 normal
    The top layer of soil that thaws each summer is deeper than usual — more frozen material exposed to microbes.
    Arctic CH₄ vs global
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    flask network mean
    Arctic flask stations measure more methane than the global average — consistent with extra regional sources.
    Abrupt thaw risk area
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    of Arctic land
    Where the ground can collapse fast — lakes form, soil slumps. Methane release is 10–1,000× faster than gradual thaw.

    Permafrost methane vs the whole budget

    Each row is the same ~580 Tg/yr total anthropogenic methane budget — the colored slice is permafrost-region flux under three synthesis scenarios.

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    Where is permafrost warming fastest?

    Five Arctic boreholes — holes drilled deep into the frozen ground to measure how fast the underground is warming. The map below shows each site at its real position around the Arctic; bubble size is the warming rate. The ranked list below it shows the same data fastest-first.

      Why does this matter?

      • Methane is about 80× more warming than carbon dioxide over 20 years — small atmospheric changes matter.
      • The permafrost carbon has been frozen for tens of thousands of years; once microbes start releasing it, the warming feedback runs for decades.
      • Borehole sites at +0.5 to +0.6 °C per decade are warming several times faster than the planet as a whole.

      How does Arctic permafrost thaw affect you?

      Pick a country to see how Arctic permafrost thaw reaches it…

      What drives this

      What this drives

      • Tipping-point risk →Permafrost carbon feedback is one of the slow amplifiers scientists track.
      • Methane context →Permafrost methane sits beside agriculture, fossil fuels, and wetlands in the global methane budget.

      How we know this

      • Atmospheric methane: NOAA GML global marine-boundary-layer file and surface-flask station files — downloaded on our schedule, not a live sensor API.
      • Update cadence: Global and flask values refresh when NOAA posts new months (roughly monthly, 1–2 month lag). This page recompiles daily.
      • Permafrost values & boreholes: NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025 plus reference values from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost — updated manually after each December Report Card. ARC 2025 (Dec 2025) reports record permafrost temperatures across North America and Svalbard.
      • Carbon flux bar: IPCC AR6 + Schuur et al. 2022 synthesis scenarios for context — not measured flux on this page.
      • Limitations: Sparse stations in Russia and Tibet; Arctic flask surplus is not proof of permafrost-only emissions; flux scenarios are illustrative bounds.
      • Primary data: NOAA GML CH₄ trends · Arctic Report Card · How this page is built