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Permafrost is carbon storage that thaws
The risk is not one sudden “methane bomb.” It is a frozen carbon bank becoming biologically active as the ground warms, deepens, slumps, and turns wet enough for microbes to make methane.
Methane in the air since 1983
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Hover any bar to see its month and methane level.
Global mean methane — each bar is one month (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Global Monitoring Laboratory). Cooler blues = lower mixing ratio vs the 1983–1990 baseline; warmer tones = higher.
Arctic flask stations vs reference (Mace Head)
Arctic stations consistently show more methane than the mid-latitude reference — local sources, wetlands, or transport from lower latitudes.
Global methane trend
Annual global mean from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — growth has re-accelerated since the mid-2000s.
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2007–2016, continuous permafrost
How much the frozen ground warmed in one decade, measured in boreholes about 10–20 m deep (Biskaborn et al. 2019).
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flask network mean
Arctic flask stations measure more methane than the global average — consistent with extra regional sources.
Permafrost methane vs the whole budget
Each row is the world’s total methane emissions from all sources, about 575 million tonnes a year; the coloured slice is the northern permafrost region’s share, by two independent methods.
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Where is permafrost warming fastest?
Scientists measure permafrost temperature in boreholes drilled 10 metres or more into the frozen ground. The first global comparison of these records, by Biskaborn and colleagues (2019), found the coldest permafrost warming fastest. Warming over 2007–2016, by permafrost type:
The longest-running boreholes, 1978–2016
Loading borehole records…
Why does this matter?
- Methane is about 80× more warming than carbon dioxide over 20 years — small atmospheric changes matter.
- The permafrost carbon has been frozen for tens of thousands of years; once microbes start releasing it, the warming feedback runs for decades.
- Continuous Arctic permafrost warmed 0.39 °C in a single decade (2007–2016), about twice the rate of global surface warming.
How does Arctic permafrost thaw affect you?
Pick a country to see how Arctic permafrost thaw reaches it…
What drives this
- Arctic warming →A warmer background climate deepens summer thaw and heats boreholes.
- Sea-ice loss →A darker Arctic absorbs more sun and amplifies land warming.
What this drives
- Tipping-point risk →Permafrost carbon feedback is one of the slow amplifiers scientists track.
- Methane context →Permafrost methane sits beside agriculture, fossil fuels, and wetlands in the global methane budget.
How we know this
- Atmospheric methane: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Global Monitoring Laboratory global marine-boundary-layer file and surface-flask station files — downloaded on our schedule, not a live sensor feed.
- Update cadence: Global and flask values refresh when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration posts new months (roughly monthly, 1–2 month lag). This page recompiles daily.
- Permafrost warming: Biskaborn et al. 2019 (Nature Communications), from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost borehole records, 2007–2016; the 20 long-running boreholes come from the network’s published data set on PANGAEA (1978–2016), built into this page by a script, not typed in. The 2025 Report Card (December 2025) reports record permafrost temperatures across North America and Svalbard.
- Methane bar: permafrost-region methane from Hugelius et al. 2024 (Global Biogeochemical Cycles), 2000–2020; global total from the Global Methane Budget (Saunois et al. 2025), 2010–2019.
- Limitations: Sparse stations in Russia and Tibet; Arctic flask surplus is not proof of permafrost-only emissions; the permafrost-region methane figures include wetlands and lakes, so they are an upper bound on what thaw itself adds.
- Primary data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration methane trends · GTN-P borehole data · Arctic Report Card · How this page is built