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Where on the equator is it warm right now?
Scientists track four bands of equatorial Pacific Ocean — labelled Niño 1+2, 3, 3.4, and 4 from east to west — to detect and measure El Niño and La Niña. The eastern band, off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, usually warms first. The warm patch then expands westward over the next few months. Today the eastern band is already very warm; the central band has just crossed the El Niño threshold.
Region boundaries and monthly anomaly values from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its Climate Prediction Center weekly sea-surface-temperature indices feed.
Where along the equator is it warm?
Each band shown in turn on the same Pacific basin, so you can see exactly where Niño 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 sit — and the order in which they warm.
Niño 1+2 —
The small box on the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Already very warm. The eastern Pacific typically warms first — it leads the full El Niño by one to three months.
Niño 3 —
The eastern equatorial Pacific (90°W to 150°W). The warming patch spreads here next, after Niño 1+2.
Niño 3.4 — main index
The central equatorial Pacific (120°W to 170°W). This is the band scientists use to declare El Niño and La Niña.
Niño 4 —
The western equatorial Pacific (160°E to 150°W). Warms last in the cycle. Typically lags the eastern bands by four to six months.
Monthly ocean-temperature anomalies since 1982 for each region — scan east-to-west: warmth building off Peru before the central Pacific is the classic developing El Niño pattern.
The next eighteen months — Pacific Ocean trajectory
A warm patch along the equator in the central Pacific is the trigger that drives every El Niño around the world. Each frame is the same Pacific basin — the patch grows, intensifies, fades, then reverses sign for La Niña. Today is the only observed frame; the next three sketch an illustrative path if this El Niño builds toward a strong or super event like 1997–98 or 2015–16 — not a calibrated forecast.
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Now · June 2026 observed+0.1 °C anomaly
Eastern Pacific (off Peru) already running hot at +1.5 °C; central Pacific just barely positive. The warm patch is forming where it usually starts.
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Super-event scenario · late 2026 scenario~+2.3 °C · super-event scale (1997 / 2015)
If 2026 keeps building like those years, the peak would land in late 2026; NOAA’s monthly outlook (status under the super El Niño chart below) gives the official odds of that strength. A strong event bleaches coral reefs, suppresses Atlantic hurricanes while strengthening Pacific ones, dries Indonesian peatlands, and stresses Indian and southern-African crops.
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Normalising · mid-2027 scenario+0.4 °C anomaly · winding down
By mid-2027 the warm patch shrinks and weakens; ocean temperatures drift back toward the long-term average — the El Niño decay phase.
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La Niña flip · late 2027 historical pattern−1.0 °C anomaly · cool phase
Big El Niños have historically been followed by La Niña — the cool, mirror-image phase. After 1997–98 and 2015–16, ocean temperatures swung the other way for another one to three years.
Each frame is the same Pacific basemap. The red, orange, yellow or blue patch represents the equatorial warm or cool anomaly at that point in time. Frame 1 is observed (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, May 2026). Frames 2–4 are an illustrative path for a strong or super event, drawn from how 1997–98 and 2015–16 evolved — not a calibrated ensemble forecast. For the official status and strength outlook, see NOAA’s latest discussion under the super El Niño chart; the La Niña flip frame is the typical post-super-El-Niño pattern, not a certainty.
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Air pressure gap between the east tropical Pacific (Tahiti) and the west (Darwin, Australia) — the atmospheric signal of the cycle.
Is this tracking like a super El Niño?
Every cycle is lined up at its onset — month 0, the first three-month season the central-Pacific ocean temperature index crossed above zero on its way up. For 2026 that is April–May–June (AMJ 2026, +0.49 °C), per NOAA Climate Prediction Center's published Relative Oceanic Niño Index. The big El Niños of 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 peaked nine to fifteen months after their onset. The solid red line is the current cycle; the dotted marker is its latest reading. Each point is a three-month average and NOAA publishes it after those months end, so the latest reading trails the calendar by about a month. The dashed red line is an illustrative super-event analog (how 1997–98 and 2015–16 evolved), not a forecaster median. The question: are we climbing at the same rate as the past super events?
Important: "month 0" here is this chart's analytical anchor, not an official date. NOAA declares El Niño operationally by issuing an El Niño Advisory once El Niño conditions are observed and expected to continue; the rule of five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons at or above +0.5 °C is how it classifies episodes afterwards. For the current official status, see NOAA's monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion.
Central-Pacific temperature — last 30 years
The Niño 3.4 central-Pacific ocean temperature anomaly — three-month rolling average. Orange dashed line marks the El Niño threshold (+0.5 °C), blue dashed marks La Niña (−0.5 °C), red dotted marks the informal "super" event line (+2 °C). Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Relative Oceanic Niño Index since 1950 — warming stripes
Each bar is one 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index value. Blue = La Niña-like; white = neutral; orange/red = El Niño — deep red marks informal “super” events (≥ +2 °C).
What does El Niño mean for your region?
Looking up your region…
Global impacts in progress
Live signals from sibling monitors that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle typically drives. Click through to each for full detail.
What drives this
- Ocean heat →A warmer ocean background changes the stage on which El Niño and La Niña unfold.
- Pacific marine heatwaves →Regional warm pools can reinforce or complicate the cycle's development.
What this drives
- Coral bleaching →El Niño years often stack heat stress onto already-warm reefs.
- Drought and crops →The El Niño / La Niña cycle tilts rainfall odds across the US, Australia, Indonesia, Africa, and South America.
- Atlantic hurricanes →El Niño tends to raise wind shear over the Atlantic and suppress storm formation.
How we know this
- Sources: Sea-surface-temperature indices for the Niño regions, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (the 3-month central-Pacific Niño 3.4 anomaly relative to the whole tropics; NOAA’s official index since February 2026), and the Southern Oscillation Index, from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center — public text files, no programming key.
- Update cadence: We download the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's files daily; values change when the Climate Prediction Center posts a new month (typically once per month).
- Cross-tool impacts: Coral, marine heatwave, US drought, and global temperature tiles read sibling dashboards — each only as current as that tool.
- Methods: Phase and strength labels use the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's published Relative Oceanic Niño Index thresholds. “Super” El Niño overlays use an informal ±2 °C peak convention, not an official Climate Prediction Center category.
- Limitations: The regional notes show the region you pick; the page never detects your location. Teleconnection text is typical El Niño odds, not a forecast for your farm or city.
- Primary data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center — Relative Oceanic Niño Index · How this page is built