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Storm energy building through the season
Compiled daily
The season’s strongest storm
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- Depression
- Tropical storm
- Category 1–2
- Category 3
- Category 4–5
- Start
This season against the outlooks and an average year
Storm energy of every season since 1950
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175 years of seasons
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Season storm tracks
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- Depression
- Tropical storm
- Category 1–2
- Category 3
- Category 4–5
- Start
What the categories mean
Is climate change making hurricanes worse?
- Stronger, wetter storms. Worldwide, the share of tropical cyclones reaching Category 3–5 has likely increased over the last four decades, and climate change increases the heavy rain they bring (IPCC AR6, 2021).
- More of the most intense ones ahead. The share of Category 4–5 storms and the peak winds of the strongest are projected to rise with further warming (IPCC AR6).
- Not clearly more storms. Confidence in long-term trends in the number of storms is low (IPCC AR6). For the Atlantic, the rise in recorded hurricanes over the past century matches better detection; since the 1970s, activity has recovered from a deep low in the 1960s–80s (Vecchi et al. 2021).
- Any single season is mostly weather. El Niño tends to bring strong winds high over the Atlantic that tear storms apart, and La Niña tends to do the opposite (NOAA). Forecasters expected a strong El Niño in 2026.
Which major hurricanes came closest to a place?
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What drives this
- Ocean heat →Warm upper-ocean water is the fuel for rapid intensification.
- Marine heatwaves →Regional hot pools can precondition storm corridors.
- ENSO state →El Niño often increases Atlantic wind shear; La Niña often lowers it.
What this drives
- Coastal flood risk →Storm surge rides on top of higher baseline sea level.
- Crop and drought stress →Landfall rains can break droughts or flood fields in days.
How we know this
- Source: National Hurricane Center best tracks: the HURDAT2 archive (Atlantic since 1851) and, for the season under way, NHC’s operational best tracks. Outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and Colorado State University.
- Update cadence: We check every night. Operational tracks change while storms are active; HURDAT2 is published once a year after NHC reviews the season, and then replaces the preliminary tracks. Outlooks are read from the issuers’ pages.
- Methods: Storm energy (ACE) adds up the square of each storm’s wind every 6 hours while it is at least tropical-storm strength. Named storms, hurricanes and majors count only tropical or subtropical phases. Average season = 1991–2020.
- Uncertainty: This season’s numbers are preliminary and can change in the post-season review. Before satellites, storms at sea were often missed, so the early record undercounts.
- Limitations: Not a warning service. For an approaching storm, follow the National Hurricane Center and local officials.
- Primary data: HURDAT2 · NHC operational best tracks · How this page is built