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Rest of the world is warming. This patch is different.
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Sv per decade (RAPID annual means)
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RAPID transport through time
Also in the literature
How weak could AMOC get this century?
Schematic strength of Atlantic overturning as a share of today’s flow — not a live forecast dial.
Today
~95% AR6 likely range
2100 · 50–90% Collapse zone
<50%
~95% AR6 likely range
2100 · 50–90% Collapse zone
<50%
What AMOC weakening means
Estimating your region…
What drives this
- Ocean heat →Warming changes density contrasts and the heat carried north.
- Polar ice →Freshwater from ice melt can cap dense-water formation in the North Atlantic.
What this drives
- Sea level rise →A weaker AMOC can raise dynamic sea level along the US East Coast.
- Drought and crop stress →AMOC shifts can move tropical rainfall belts and monsoon patterns.
How we know this
- Sources: RAPID/BODC annual transport (reference embed), NOAA PSL AMV index (daily fetch), OSNAP published mean, OpenAlex paper metadata.
- Update cadence: AMV and papers refresh on our build schedule; RAPID/OSNAP update when we paste new BODC/OSNAP releases (often years behind calendar date).
- Time coverage: Direct overturning at 26°N since 2004 only; SST fingerprint from 1856 via AMV; landmark papers annotated on the chart.
- Methods: Hero % uses 2004–2008 RAPID mean as baseline; cold-blob grid is a schematic AMV-derived pattern, not OISST pixels.
- Uncertainty: Twenty years of RAPID cannot prove collapse; IPCC treats shutdown this century as unlikely but not impossible at high emissions. Papers disagree on tipping risk.
- Limitations: AMOC ≠ Gulf Stream; “near you” uses coarse IP geolocation (ipapi.co). Pre-2004 trends need paleo proxies with wider error bars.
- Primary data: RAPID · NOAA AMV · IPCC AR6 Ch.9 · How this page is built